MELBOURNE CUP CARNIVAL – OAKS DAY

The carnival is half over – the Melbourne Cup went down to the wire with the closest finish in history and my 50-1 shot relegated to second by a whisker. Those who like a conspiracy might suggest that a dead heat was avoided so that a second cup costing $175000 was not needed, for me it should have been called a tie, but that may be the hip pocket talking.

Oaks Day has been robbed a little by the injury to Atlantic Jewel, she would have bolted the main race in and gone a long way to stamping herself as a champion mentioned in the same ilk as Black Cavier.  But, as it is the Oaks is now much harder to call and there will be more value in finding the winner.  In fact most of the races are wide open and if you can find a few winners, there is plenty of value assured.  Let’s have a look at the card:

Race 1

9 Orbital Motion is good value and has a sound record

 

Race 2

3 Twilighting is my top pick

 

Race 3

16 Rue Maple is drawn the outside which should be an advantage in a very tough race.

16 to win, quinella 4, 8 & 16

 

Race 4

4 Bolisimo Miss s unbeaten at the track and second up.

4 to win. quinella 2, 3, & 4

 

Race 5

12 Grand Britanna has been racing against the best, so hard to line up form

12 to win

 

Race 6

7 Vittoria was one of the few fancies not to run on Saturday, that may be an advantage.  2 the danger.

7 to win, quinella 2, 7 & 11

 

Race 7

1 Torah looks like a good thing t finish around the mark

1 to win

 

Race 8

7 Cascabel beating first up by a horse who won tuesday.  race might be a bit short but likely to be coming from the rear

7 to win  quinella with 6 & 7

 

Race 9

4 Cosmic Causeway is a great chance to win the last

4 to win.  quinella 4 & 11

 

Unsure where the rail will be tomorrow, but Tuesday appeared to favour those coming down the outside and expect it will be similar tomorrow.  Good luck!!

MELBOURNE CUP DAY

The big day is here, the race that stops the nation is only a few hours away.  In recent years finding the winner of the big one has got harder and harder, and this year that appears truer than ever before.  Little known about the overseas horses, a lack of any local stars and a query over almost every horse in the field.  Anyway, let’s try and find a winner in the ten race program:

Race 1

Most of these are having their first start and tipping the winner will be about as easy as finding who salutes in the big one.  8 Languish is one of the first starters.  Won a trial by 5 lengths and from the Freedman stable.

8  Languish to win

Race 2

2  Smoulder comes in with sound form for this.  Many Kiwis have saluted on this day and this may be another.

2 Smoulder to win

Race 3

Over 2800m this is no easier for finding who might salute.  6 Adroitly is out of the Snowden stable and will be ridden by K Mc Evoy, so has a number of pluses.

6 Adroitly to win.  Trifecta 6, 7, 8, 10 & 12

Race 4

14 Neriani has good form for this, is drawn in which is important at the 1400m.

14 Nariani to win

Race 5

2 Karuta Queen was second to Black Cavier two starts back, before winning last time.  Will be short but should salute.

2 Karuta Queen to win.  Trifecta 2,3,4,5 & 7

Race 6

Not an easy race but think 5 The Fairy’s Kiss can win.  A bit of a doubt at the distance, but from barrier one should have a good run.

5 The Fairy’s Kiss to win.  5 & 8 quinella

Race 8

12 Lone Command has a good draw and has Darren Beadman aboard and is a good chance.

12 Lone Command to win.  8 & 12 quinella

Race 9

Twenty horses going down the straight, another lottery.  Think 10 Eclair Mystic can win.  Drawn out and great first up record.

10 Eclair Mystic to win

Race 10

11 Hood to win.  Finishes fast and by the last race of the day they may be coming from off the pace to win.

11 Hood to win

Race 7 The MelbourneCup

It just seems to get harder every year to pick the winner.  So many overseas horses, so many questions.  Which one will handle the pressure of 24 horses instead of the usual 6 they race with overseas, which will deal with the faster pace, which will be the one that always races on the pace and hangs on to fill a place.  Will American salute again, or  will it be the other French horse.  Really I don’t know – but should the favourite fail to carry the weight and not win, there is plenty of good value to be had.  American won in grand style last week but he did have a cosy run, something that might not be the case from barrier 15 tomorrow.  I am prepared to leave him out, but would not be surprised to see a top five finish.

I am prepared to stick my neck out and say that Lloyd Williams will own the winner again with 10 Mourayan.  He has been ultra consistent this preparation and was impressive on Saturday in coming 2nd in the Mackinnon.  Should be noted he has a win over the big firmer  in betting 23 Niwot just two starts back.  Niwot won very impressively on Saturday and has attracted huge interest since. 4 Drunken Sailor is my tip to be the overseas horse to run on pace and be in the finish.  17 At First Sight has a good chance as well, great run coming second in the Bendigo Cup.

So 10 Mourayan to win.  1, 4,10, 17 & 23 in the trifecta and quinella

Have a great Melbourne Cup day.  Good luck in the sweeps and hope you find the winner.

 

PS ** okay my melbourne cup selection is a late scratching so i have had to have a quick rethink – always dangerous.  now looking at an each way on 4 Drunken Sailor  and another each way on 12 Red Cadeaux, for some reason think this horse can win at long odds.

MELBOURNE CUP CARNIVAL – DERBY DAY

The start of the Melbourne Cup Carnival tomorrow with the best day of racing in the southern hemisphere, Derby Day.  Every race is a Group race, including four Group Ones.  Normally, finding a winner is difficult, but there are plenty of strong favourites, with a couple of out and out stars racing.  My form in recent carnivals has been horrible, finding winners almost impossible.  Tomorrow may be a little easier, but finding a bit of value may be the key.  Let’s look at the Derby Day races:

Race 1

Galah won well last time and will most likely win again.  Key is trying to find a bit of value in the quinellas and trifectas.

1 Galah to win,  include  2,3,4 & 5 in the multiples

Race 2

Looking at a bit of value with no 11 Macedonian, trained by the hot Peter Moody and trying to get into the Melbourne Cup field.

11 Macedonian to win. Include 3 & 4 in the multiples

Race 3

Champion 3 year old Alantic Jewel (1) should win, and go onto win the Oaks, but she is  very short.

1 Alantic Jewel to win.  3, 4, & 5 in multiples

Race 4

Another champion Sepoy turns out and is  expected to win as well.

1 Sepoy to win.  for good value add 8 & 9 in multiples

Race 5

8 Glass Harmonium has Damien Oliver and is at nice odds.

8 Glass Harmonium, 12 & 13 for the multiples

Race 6

The Derby has 1 Manawanui as a very strong favourite.  Has a lot of class, a great sprint and if runs distance out will most likely win. 10 Niagara is drawn in the car park, but was unlucky last start and might appreciate racing outside others.

10 Niagara to win because of the value, 1 to run second, 4, 5 , & 7 for third

Race 7

1 More Joyous had a great record but never been to headquarters before.  4 Response has won all three times she has been here. 16 Mosheen is a young filly with plenty of class.

4 Response to win 1 & 16 for the multiples

Race 8

A lottery, but finally settled on 12 Stirling Grove.

12 Stirling Grove to win.

Race 9

11 Launay is unbeaten at Flemington and unbeaten second up.

11 Launay to win.

So, there we have my tips for the first day of this year’s carnival.  If you are having a bet good luck!!

AFL 2012 LADDER PREDICTION

Trade week has been a complete waste of time for the most part with very little happening and no big names changing homes.  Therefore, with no further ado I have looked into my crystal ball and tried to predict how season 2012 may pan out.  Let’s look at my ladder prediction:

01  Collingwood                – Grand Final loss will burn and deter any chance of a drop in intensity

02  Hawthorn                    – Shocking run with injuries in 2011 and still went within a kick of the big one

03  Carlton                         – Continue improvement will see them break into the top four

04  Fremantle                   – Another with a bad injury list in 2012.  New coach and a chance to push for top four

05  Geelong                      – Are getting older and have been up for a long time.  Can they go again?

06  StKilda                       – Lack depth,but have superstars who will carry them to the right once more

07  North Melbourne – Time to step up.  AFL must give a decent draw which will help.

08  West Coast              – Best players are getting older and game plan won’t be such a surprise in 2012

09  Essendon                – Lack champions.  Will need a lot of improvement to make finals again

10  Sydney                    – Gone to well once to many times?  Best players are getting late in their careers.

11  Western Bulldogs – 2011 was a disaster, and hard to see next season being much better.

12  Richmond              – Building a decent list, but still lacking at the book ends.  Mid field needs to carry long way

13  Adelaide                -  New coach.  Good young list as well, but sill lack good forwards who can kick winning scores

14  Melbourne           – Ditto Adelaide.  Who will kick their goals and defence will be hard pressed to stand up

15 Gold Coast            – Young side will be improved, but still several years away from being competitive week in week out

16  Brisbane              – Competitive in so many matches, but won few.  Fit Brown would help, but he may be past it

17  Port Adelaide   – So many rats trying to leave the sinking ship.  Hard to see much future in short-term.

18  GWS                      – May not win a match.  Don’t expect a repeat of the Suns competitiveness.

 

So, there we have it.  I am sure that there will be plenty of debate and a few raised hackles by my predictions.  Would love to hear what others think will happen.  No doubt I will be back peddling come late March 2012 when some teams have shown improvement in the pre-season, whilst others have done little.  Enjoy the break from the footy – we’ll be back into it within a little over five months.  No doubt it will be here before we know it.

AFL – REVIEW OF MY PREVIEW

I am not one to usually blow my own trumpet….. but, what the heck!!!  My preview of the Grand Final was just about spot on, well okay it was spot on – even down to the exact margin.  It was a great grand final, but in the end Geelong kept the intensity, whilst the Collingwood players who had missed a lot of football went missing.  Reid, Maxwell, Shaw, Dawes, and Thomas went in underdone and in the end they paid for it in the ultimate way.  Leon Davis has had an awesome year, but yet again went missing when it mattered the most.  On the other hand the likes of Selwood, Bartel, Ling and Johnson further enhanced their golden reputations, whilst Tom Hawkins repaid the club for the enormous faith they had shown in him – a faith perhaps he even doubted was warranted.  Can the Cats keep going in 2012, or will it finally catch up on the aging list?  What about the Magpies?  Can the disappointment be the spur for another tilt at the prize?  No doubt 2012 will be another season of surprises and changes.  I will preview how things may turn out shortly, after trade week, when we know a bit more about how the sides will look for next year.  2011 was a terrific year, and the Geelong Football Club are deserved champions.

AFL -THE GRAND FINAL PREVIEW

 

The year has gone so quick, and the big weekend in the AFL is nearly here, with the AFL Grand Final less than 48 hours away.  The two best teams throughout the year have made it through and we are just two hours of footy away from knowing who will be crowned the champions in 2011.

Collingwood v Geelong

So much hype about a Grand Final that presents two great teams.  But, for me the winner for the first time in a number of years is very clear and I am very confident that Geelong will be celebrating come Saturday evening about 6 pm.  They have managed their group of players by rotating throughout the year, and the injury to Steve Johnson is the only real concern they have going in to the match.  A fit number 20 would be a massive boost, but even if he shouldn’t play i think the Cats will win.  Collingwood’s form has slipped dramatically in the past month – they have a number of players who have missed a lot of football late in the season, and also have more than a few who are struggling with form or injury.  The Cats thrashed them in the final round of the season (yes the match meant little), just got over the line against West Coast, and were very lucky against the Hawks.  Geelong in the mean time beat Hawthorn easily and thrashed the Eagles when it mattered. There could not be a stronger form line to believe that Geelong will win.  The biggest threat to the Cats is their own confidence and if they should try to play champagne footy then they may learn to regret it – even more so if it is wet and windy as expected.  If it is wet, then Collingwood’s main danger in Cloke and Dawes should be nullified, and it is hard to know where their goals will come from.  For me everything points to Geelong being premiers.

Tip : Geelong to win by 38 points

Norm Smith Medal : James Kelly

1st Goal Scorer : Steve Johnson or James Kelly

So, there we have it.  My final AFL preview for the year (unless we have another draw).  Let’s hope it is a wonderful Grand Final.  Enjoy the day sports fans!!

AFL FINALS WEEK 3 PREVIEW

Okay, to begin with – a bit of self-congratulation.  I was brilliant last week, tipping both winners and being within 11 points with Hawthorn and 4 points with West Coast.  Have now selected 5 winners of the 6 finals.  So, now sticking my neck out as we come to the Prelimery Final weekend:

Collingwood v Hawthorn

Mouth watering in prospect, but the Hawks are still limping a bit and weren’t that impressive in getting over the Swans last week.  Collingwood have not been their best as well over the latter part of the season, and with so many players being underdone it will be interesting to see what effect, if any, that has.  Hawthorn need Franklin and Rioli to play at their very best, but Buddy has been a walking headline with injury and now gastro, whilst Cyril seems to have lost a bit of his zip late in the season.  There are many champion players scattered across both sides and if players such as Mitchell and Hodge for the Hawks, or Pendlebury and Swan for the Magpies should play blinders at the same time, the result could easily go with their side.  But, all in all, Collingwood have been a great side for eighteen months and it is hard seeing them slipping up with so much on the line.  Collingwood to make it through to the Grand Final by 23 points.

Geelong v West Coast

To some regard neither of these sides were meant to be here.  Geelong were too old and had, had too many campaigns to do it again.  West Coast finished last in 2010, had shocking disposal, and anyone talking of being around in the second last week of the year was to be certified.  But, yet here we are – such is the lovely romance of football.  Geelong finished second, rested most of their list along the way, beat the Magpies twice, found some quality young talent - the likes that StKilda would give their right arm to have – all with a first year coach.  West Coast have reinvigorated some old champions, brought in some fresh talent of their own and played an exciting brand of football.  If the Eagles were to make a Grand Final from the wooden spoon position it would be a fairy tale come true – unfortunately fairy tales rarely do come to fruition.  Geelong should have too much talent, too much experience and be too good on the day.  The Cats to be there on the last day of the season when they win by 38 points.

So a Collingwood v Geelong Grand Final.  If it does come about it has the promise of a classic.

BRICK BATS & PADDY WHACKS

Both Ross Lyon and the Fremantle Football Club come up smelling like a rubbish dump in the heart of summer – avoid it like a plague if you can, otherwise it will make you feel nauseas.  Ross Lyon gave no clue as to his walking away from StKilda and the Saints thought that they were within days of signing on a new four-year deal.  The fact he has walked away to coach Fremantle says a lot.  To me he is saying that StKilda’s tilt at a flag has passed, and that the club would need to go backwards  at least in the short-term to be able to have another tilt.  The fact that he has deserted StKilda at such a time, and has also not gone to a young list like Melbourne, indicates that Lyon is seeking immediate success and does not want to have to rebuild a club.  Fremantle have been crucified by injury in the past two years, and would have to improve little to be a walk up start for a top four position come 2012.  Mark Harvey did a very credible job this year to still have the Dockers in the finals mix so late in the season with the injuries the club suffered.  Apparently, he has taken the medical side of the club to task for the injury list, and this may be in part behind the decision to get rid of him.  Football is very much a business these days, but the sacking of a coach who had done little wrong, and the walking out of the door of another coach because his side may have passed the premiership window stink, and show no compassion or integrity on the part of either party.  StKilda are wishing Lyon the best publicly at the moment, but the club, the players and the supporters should feel very dirty on what has happened as obviously should Mark Harvey.  Karma came back to bite Essendon last week after the similar going ons around Mark Thompson and James Hird last year.  Let’s hope that Karma comes back to haunt the Fremantle Football Club and Ross Lyon in a similar way.

Melbourne Football Club receiving the same compensation as Gary Ablett for losing Tom Scully is a big joke.  Even though Scully was a number one draft pick he only played ten games this year and has hardly set the world on fire.  The Western Bulldogs should feel very aggrieved that they have only received one pick for losing Callan Ward, who at the moment is a much better player than Scully.  Prospects are another thing, but to me either Geelong were harshly dealt with, or Melbourne should be smiling.  On the current basis North Melbourne should do all they can to have Lachie Hansen go to GWS and receive two bonus draft picks in return.  On the other side of things Port Adelaide told Dean Brogen and Chad Cornes that they were finished at the club and forced them into retirement.  But, now that both players look like being picked up by GWS, Port Adelaide are keeping them on the list and are seeking compensation.  For goodness sake is this what the AFL has come to.  Power are already a huge joke, surely this just emphasises just how bigger joke they are.  Luke Power is a bit different in that he retired after Brisbane told him that he could not be guaranteed a walk up start every week.  Now, he too looks like landing at GWS.  Perhaps, the Lions deserve some compensation, just not two top draft picks.

David Gallop is head of the NRL and going on his current form would be welcomed at the Port Adelaide Football Club to run things.  For the first time since stripping Melbourne Storm of Premierships, money and players Gallop actually attended a Melbourne Storm fixture when he visited AAMI Park to hand over the Minor Premiership to the Victorian club.  His response to being booed and jeered by the crowd was to say that even terrorists are driven by passion as well, but that doesn’t make it right.  Perhaps it was a bad choice of words in the spur of the moment, but surely it is a strong indication of what the head of the NRL thinks about the Melbourne club and its supporters.  The AFL went National in 1987 and in the 24 years since many non Victorian clubs have won the flag, and some have dominated the competition such as West Coast in the 90′s.  But, for the most part it has been accepted and certainly in the AFL’s case celebrated.  Yet, the NRL seem to loathe the Mebourne Storm’s success and delighted in stripping all but one title from the trophy cabinet.  Why expand if success by a non rugby state is treated in such a way.  Let’s just hope that Melbourne Storm can win this years title and stick it up every single knocker and whiner, most of all to those within the NRL at the top level.

AFL _ MARK HARVEY SACKED

Huge news breaking in the AFL with Fremantle having dumped coach Mark Harvey today.  Apparently, in the midst of a coach review day the assistant coaches went out to get a coffee and returned to find that the senior coach who was leading the review had been dumped.

The big whisper is that current StKilda coach Ross Lyon told the Saints club today that he would not be coaching them in 2012.  The Dockers have said that a too bigger opportunity to let pass was the reason behind the Mark Harvey sacking – that would seem to lend huge support to the Lyon whisper.

The Fremantle Dockers had a horrendous run with injury this year, and looking forward to 2012 any new coach would be expecting a top four finish at the very least.  If it is Lyon as new coach then you would think that he would be very much looking to make the Dockers more accountable and improve their defensive structures.  Lyon had been linked to the Demon coaching job since StKilda’s year ended last weekend, but the Dockers more mature and ready to fire now list is a much better fit.  I do not see Lyon as a coach to take over a young side and build over a number of years to a flag tilt.

Yet another coach falls on the AFL scrap heap in 2011 – hopefully it has ended now!!

AFL FINALS WEEK 2 PREVIEW

 

Hi Everyone!! Successful first week of the finals, although I thought the standard of footy was disappointing in all.  Carlton the most impressive with the way they played, Geelong good, and Collingwood remaining slightly off the boil.  I tipped three winners, missing on Sydney.  Let’s have a look at week 2.

Hawthorn v Sydney

The Hawks will be sweating on the fitness of Franklin.  Hard to believe he could play after looking as if he would miss 12 months when he first was hurt, but he has been picked.  Even if he does miss, the Hawks have won all three games this year when Buddy hasn’t played.  The biggest disappointment last week was Cyril Rioli, and he will need to fire whether Buddy is there or not.  The Swans were impressive last week, but they struggle on the bigger space at the MCG, being thrashed by Richmond only a month ago.  There is no doubt they play with a lot of passion and whilst they may lack the number of champions to be found in other sides, they gel excellently as a team.  Hawthorn has been so good this year in dealing with injuries it would be disappointing to see them go out in straight sets.  They have a number of great players and no doubt those players will lift to try to ensure that doesn’t happen.  Hawthorn to win by 25 points tomorrow night.

West Coast v Carlton

The Eagles were excellent in defeat last week, whilst as mentioned previously Carlton were the most impressive side of the weekend in demolishing Essendon.  The Eagles are excellent at home and by displacing the Blues late in the year for fourth the real benefit of that is apparent this week.  That said the sides only met once during the year and West Coast won easily in Melbourne.  Carlton are missing a lot of tall players, but their strength lays in their fast smalls and the wide open spaces in the west will suit.   However, the Eagles have quality talls in Kennedy, Lynch, Cox, Nic Nac etc, and the Blues may struggle to cover them all. This is probably the best match of the two for the weekend, and either team could get over the line.  Home ground advantage tips it to the Eagles for me, with a close 7 point win.

Well, only five matches left in the AFL season – hard to believe.  Enjoy them all!!