The start of the Melbourne Cup Carnival tomorrow with the best day of racing in the southern hemisphere, Derby Day. Every race is a Group race, including four Group Ones. Normally, finding a winner is difficult, but there are plenty of strong favourites, with a couple of out and out stars racing. My form in recent carnivals has been horrible, finding winners almost impossible. Tomorrow may be a little easier, but finding a bit of value may be the key. Let’s look at the Derby Day races:
Race 1
Galah won well last time and will most likely win again. Key is trying to find a bit of value in the quinellas and trifectas.
1 Galah to win, include 2,3,4 & 5 in the multiples
Race 2
Looking at a bit of value with no 11 Macedonian, trained by the hot Peter Moody and trying to get into the Melbourne Cup field.
11 Macedonian to win. Include 3 & 4 in the multiples
Race 3
Champion 3 year old Alantic Jewel (1) should win, and go onto win the Oaks, but she is very short.
1 Alantic Jewel to win. 3, 4, & 5 in multiples
Race 4
Another champion Sepoy turns out and is expected to win as well.
1 Sepoy to win. for good value add 8 & 9 in multiples
Race 5
8 Glass Harmonium has Damien Oliver and is at nice odds.
8 Glass Harmonium, 12 & 13 for the multiples
Race 6
The Derby has 1 Manawanui as a very strong favourite. Has a lot of class, a great sprint and if runs distance out will most likely win. 10 Niagara is drawn in the car park, but was unlucky last start and might appreciate racing outside others.
10 Niagara to win because of the value, 1 to run second, 4, 5 , & 7 for third
Race 7
1 More Joyous had a great record but never been to headquarters before. 4 Response has won all three times she has been here. 16 Mosheen is a young filly with plenty of class.
4 Response to win 1 & 16 for the multiples
Race 8
A lottery, but finally settled on 12 Stirling Grove.
12 Stirling Grove to win.
Race 9
11 Launay is unbeaten at Flemington and unbeaten second up.
11 Launay to win.
So, there we have my tips for the first day of this year’s carnival. If you are having a bet good luck!!
