The big day is here, the race that stops the nation is only a few hours away. In recent years finding the winner of the big one has got harder and harder, and this year that appears truer than ever before. Little known about the overseas horses, a lack of any local stars and a query over almost every horse in the field. Anyway, let’s try and find a winner in the ten race program:
Race 1
Most of these are having their first start and tipping the winner will be about as easy as finding who salutes in the big one. 8 Languish is one of the first starters. Won a trial by 5 lengths and from the Freedman stable.
8 Languish to win
Race 2
2 Smoulder comes in with sound form for this. Many Kiwis have saluted on this day and this may be another.
2 Smoulder to win
Race 3
Over 2800m this is no easier for finding who might salute. 6 Adroitly is out of the Snowden stable and will be ridden by K Mc Evoy, so has a number of pluses.
6 Adroitly to win. Trifecta 6, 7, 8, 10 & 12
Race 4
14 Neriani has good form for this, is drawn in which is important at the 1400m.
14 Nariani to win
Race 5
2 Karuta Queen was second to Black Cavier two starts back, before winning last time. Will be short but should salute.
2 Karuta Queen to win. Trifecta 2,3,4,5 & 7
Race 6
Not an easy race but think 5 The Fairy’s Kiss can win. A bit of a doubt at the distance, but from barrier one should have a good run.
5 The Fairy’s Kiss to win. 5 & 8 quinella
Race 8
12 Lone Command has a good draw and has Darren Beadman aboard and is a good chance.
12 Lone Command to win. 8 & 12 quinella
Race 9
Twenty horses going down the straight, another lottery. Think 10 Eclair Mystic can win. Drawn out and great first up record.
10 Eclair Mystic to win
Race 10
11 Hood to win. Finishes fast and by the last race of the day they may be coming from off the pace to win.
11 Hood to win
Race 7 The MelbourneCup
It just seems to get harder every year to pick the winner. So many overseas horses, so many questions. Which one will handle the pressure of 24 horses instead of the usual 6 they race with overseas, which will deal with the faster pace, which will be the one that always races on the pace and hangs on to fill a place. Will American salute again, or will it be the other French horse. Really I don’t know – but should the favourite fail to carry the weight and not win, there is plenty of good value to be had. American won in grand style last week but he did have a cosy run, something that might not be the case from barrier 15 tomorrow. I am prepared to leave him out, but would not be surprised to see a top five finish.
I am prepared to stick my neck out and say that Lloyd Williams will own the winner again with 10 Mourayan. He has been ultra consistent this preparation and was impressive on Saturday in coming 2nd in the Mackinnon. Should be noted he has a win over the big firmer in betting 23 Niwot just two starts back. Niwot won very impressively on Saturday and has attracted huge interest since. 4 Drunken Sailor is my tip to be the overseas horse to run on pace and be in the finish. 17 At First Sight has a good chance as well, great run coming second in the Bendigo Cup.
So 10 Mourayan to win. 1, 4,10, 17 & 23 in the trifecta and quinella
Have a great Melbourne Cup day. Good luck in the sweeps and hope you find the winner.
PS ** okay my melbourne cup selection is a late scratching so i have had to have a quick rethink – always dangerous. now looking at an each way on 4 Drunken Sailor and another each way on 12 Red Cadeaux, for some reason think this horse can win at long odds.
